How indeed? Progressives had already declared that the bird app was dead and Elon Musk had killed it, and yet here it was, fluttering along, continuing to send out its relentless stream of inanity, insanity, and incongruity (with just enough substance and amusement to keep us all hooked). How
This is why it's hard to see the Twitter alternatives having any great success. They all seem to have partisanship baked into their design. Apart from anything else, this deprives us from rubbernecking at high profile figures making comments that seem beyond the pale compared to our own beliefs, or even better, sniping at one other in public.
I have no particular opinion of Elon Musk, but the Twitter Drama coming from his tweets is now at a level where I no longer believe in it - it looks like theatre. Blue-check-gate was fun and all, but as a business decision it was so close to the ‘can’t run a lemonade stand’ level of functioning that I can’t actually believe he didn’t see the consequences. I think he’s giving us a show while he does whatever the hell it is he’s thinking of doing
My guess is even if Musk runs Twitter into the ground the platform won't go, because the platform itself will remain valuable. It can be sold, again, to an investor who might run it better. Perhaps after the second sale it will die, that's possible too. But Twitter was successful for a reason, people are on it now for a reason, and that reason hasn't changed with Musk's purchase.
Thanks for writing this. The liberal hysteria (and I'm liberal) over twitter has been... exhausting ;-). Musk seemingly has made some really poor decisions with this platform, but the whole twitter is going to go away is nonsense.
I just wrote approximately what you said, much shorter and less eloquent, replying to a Medium article. In fact I will post this article as an even better reply.
Nov 19, 2022·edited Nov 19, 2022Liked by HistoryBoomer
The CrossFit runners example is a different situation. It's almost a real-life version of this xkcd: https://xkcd.com/1170/
That is, it's not so much "imitative apes", but rather that it's possible to misread an innocent action as "urgent danger, escape now". If they were running because just around the corner there was a mass shooter killing people, running too would have been a very good idea. It's the same thing as in certain places, loud engine backfire can cause people to duck and go ground, because it sounds like a gunshot.
And to be fair, one could argue the predictions of doom weren't completely "vibe", but a pundit case with a core assertion of "Elon Musk has fired and alienated so many engineers that the Twitter infrastructure is going to collapse". Yes, there's a large amount of wishful thinking there, but it's not totally based in fantasy either. Twitter has had many infrastructure problems in the past. And what Musk is doing is poking the bear (well, the "fail whale"). If you poke a tame bear, will you inevitably get killed? Not necessarily, but it's definitely tempting fate.
I never thought twitter would completely implode. Rather, I thought Musk would turn it into something more akin to a giant Truth Social—a space where right-wing hate speech plus the usual disinformation/misinformation/propaganda might flourish.
The tweet about Paul Pelosi kind of showed where Musk's head is at (i.e., up his ass).
Doesn’t seem complicated. Musk overpaid, didn’t have a plan, and likely must pony up more to pay creditors. Plus he seems like a dick. Believers in magical genius investing may prop up the stock price for a time. Grown ups shouldn’t risk advertising on the platform. Tough to imagine people will pay for Twitter. Is it collapsing tomorrow, probably not. Next month, probably not. Next year, probably.
Liberal here who follows The Bulwark whose link led me to this story.
Your point that we don't know what we don't know when it comes to Musk's plans or the true health status and future of Twitter is well taken and worthy of thought. It has opened my mind as we move forward and observe how this all plays out. I want Musk and Twitter to succeed even if I am guilty of having biases confirmed should he fail. I am not rooting to have my bias confirmed. I am fine being wrong.
I would love to wake up and find out that Twitter with Musk at the helm has put forth a serious set of guidelines that addresses any inevitable over-policing that might have taken place, but that doesn't ignore how the mediation got to where it did. See Hillary's emails and genuine proven Russian interference in the 2016 election social media space and you can see why there was a struggle to moderate the Hunter Biden story. If partisans are counting on October surprises every election cycle to tear through social media, then it stands to reason that informed/experienced platforms who know the game, would work to make sure misinformation is limited.
The fact is, conservatives can't be 100% wrong - and review of excessive mediation should happen. But when one side tends to act as a dishonest broker when debating in the public square or has a history of using Twitter as a tool to organize events like January 6, it should be no surprise that special attention will be paid to that side. Statements made by today's preferred conservative 'thought leaders' cause vulnerable groups of people trying to gain a foothold as they live their true lives to live in danger—like actual danger and not just paranoia and fear that the likes of Stewart Rhodes experience for some unexplained reason.
I am not rooting for Musk to fail. I am rooting for a day when we don't have outright lies (election denial without proof, anti-vaccination misinformation with dubious only sources), antisemitic writing, and anti-trans/gender (aka 'anti-woke') rhetoric. Your average liberal doesn't want terrible stuff banned because they fear that they themselves might be influenced or hurt - but because of proven historical concern that another conservatives - such as the young male who is or becomes the proud owner of an AR-15 will take 'matters' into his own hands at an LGBTQ night club or hit the Speaker of the House's husband with a hammer.
As for the expected fiscal demise of Twitter, all one has to be is a conservative economist evaluating a business. Musk bought something for $44B that other business people say is worth less than $7-10B and took out hefty loans to do much of it. When it was in 'better days' - like last year - it was only generating $1B a year, while supported by shareholders (spreading the pain so to speak). Heck, you and I probably owned a few shares in our retirement portfolios.
Now it's one guy trying to make the mortgage every month as advertisers leave due to the very reason Musk purchased Twitter - to allow it to platform all thoughts, presumably no matter how repulsive, all in the name of free speech. Never mind the fact that free speech only applies to government granted rights and not rights conferred by a lone businessman running a private business. And his financial situation is happening at a time when our country has yet to slip into a recession that is all but considered necessary in order to bring the nation's housing and associated inflation into balance.
I enjoy Twitter. We were enjoying Twitter before Musk. I hope it becomes successful under him, but it's hard not to consider the numbers: the likely monthly cash burn rate, how much cash must have to be drawn from outside Twitter just to pay the interest, the dislike expressed by power users if there's any mention of paying even the smallest of monthly fees for any reason, and fleeing advertisers exercising their free right of commerce.
I made my decision to leave Twitter today! The right wing conspiracies, Trump, etc, are going full speed again! I do not want to hear their attacks and conspiracies again! I never did join Truth Social for these very reasons. So, my feeling is when I compare the number of people on Twitter versus Truth Social and if Musk continues to cater to the crazies & running off advertisers & other people that feel the way I do, I think Twitter will go down the drain! Just my thinking! Have fun people on Twitter!
By the way, I suspect some part of the recent kerfuffles about banning some journalists and banning mastodon links may be related to cuts to twitter's censorship, err "moderation", staff. In order to work well, much of this stuff requires a fair bit of constant tuning, in real-time. Sure, you can keep running with a version you don't update. Likely, nothing bad will happen immediately. But it's like running antivirus software which isn't updated. Eventually, it's not going to catch new stuff you need it to catch, and that can be a big problem. Now, Musk may not think it's a big problem, that it's just journos complaining, and he doesn't care about them. But it's again tempting fate in terms of risking disaster.
This is why it's hard to see the Twitter alternatives having any great success. They all seem to have partisanship baked into their design. Apart from anything else, this deprives us from rubbernecking at high profile figures making comments that seem beyond the pale compared to our own beliefs, or even better, sniping at one other in public.
I have no particular opinion of Elon Musk, but the Twitter Drama coming from his tweets is now at a level where I no longer believe in it - it looks like theatre. Blue-check-gate was fun and all, but as a business decision it was so close to the ‘can’t run a lemonade stand’ level of functioning that I can’t actually believe he didn’t see the consequences. I think he’s giving us a show while he does whatever the hell it is he’s thinking of doing
I sent this to Twitter.
My guess is even if Musk runs Twitter into the ground the platform won't go, because the platform itself will remain valuable. It can be sold, again, to an investor who might run it better. Perhaps after the second sale it will die, that's possible too. But Twitter was successful for a reason, people are on it now for a reason, and that reason hasn't changed with Musk's purchase.
Thanks for writing this. The liberal hysteria (and I'm liberal) over twitter has been... exhausting ;-). Musk seemingly has made some really poor decisions with this platform, but the whole twitter is going to go away is nonsense.
All this exactly. The hysteria. 🤦🏻♀️
I just wrote approximately what you said, much shorter and less eloquent, replying to a Medium article. In fact I will post this article as an even better reply.
Thank you, Carl.
The other article https://smokingtyger.medium.com/short-takes-05-fadf70284a
The CrossFit runners example is a different situation. It's almost a real-life version of this xkcd: https://xkcd.com/1170/
That is, it's not so much "imitative apes", but rather that it's possible to misread an innocent action as "urgent danger, escape now". If they were running because just around the corner there was a mass shooter killing people, running too would have been a very good idea. It's the same thing as in certain places, loud engine backfire can cause people to duck and go ground, because it sounds like a gunshot.
And to be fair, one could argue the predictions of doom weren't completely "vibe", but a pundit case with a core assertion of "Elon Musk has fired and alienated so many engineers that the Twitter infrastructure is going to collapse". Yes, there's a large amount of wishful thinking there, but it's not totally based in fantasy either. Twitter has had many infrastructure problems in the past. And what Musk is doing is poking the bear (well, the "fail whale"). If you poke a tame bear, will you inevitably get killed? Not necessarily, but it's definitely tempting fate.
I never thought twitter would completely implode. Rather, I thought Musk would turn it into something more akin to a giant Truth Social—a space where right-wing hate speech plus the usual disinformation/misinformation/propaganda might flourish.
The tweet about Paul Pelosi kind of showed where Musk's head is at (i.e., up his ass).
Doesn’t seem complicated. Musk overpaid, didn’t have a plan, and likely must pony up more to pay creditors. Plus he seems like a dick. Believers in magical genius investing may prop up the stock price for a time. Grown ups shouldn’t risk advertising on the platform. Tough to imagine people will pay for Twitter. Is it collapsing tomorrow, probably not. Next month, probably not. Next year, probably.
Liberal here who follows The Bulwark whose link led me to this story.
Your point that we don't know what we don't know when it comes to Musk's plans or the true health status and future of Twitter is well taken and worthy of thought. It has opened my mind as we move forward and observe how this all plays out. I want Musk and Twitter to succeed even if I am guilty of having biases confirmed should he fail. I am not rooting to have my bias confirmed. I am fine being wrong.
I would love to wake up and find out that Twitter with Musk at the helm has put forth a serious set of guidelines that addresses any inevitable over-policing that might have taken place, but that doesn't ignore how the mediation got to where it did. See Hillary's emails and genuine proven Russian interference in the 2016 election social media space and you can see why there was a struggle to moderate the Hunter Biden story. If partisans are counting on October surprises every election cycle to tear through social media, then it stands to reason that informed/experienced platforms who know the game, would work to make sure misinformation is limited.
The fact is, conservatives can't be 100% wrong - and review of excessive mediation should happen. But when one side tends to act as a dishonest broker when debating in the public square or has a history of using Twitter as a tool to organize events like January 6, it should be no surprise that special attention will be paid to that side. Statements made by today's preferred conservative 'thought leaders' cause vulnerable groups of people trying to gain a foothold as they live their true lives to live in danger—like actual danger and not just paranoia and fear that the likes of Stewart Rhodes experience for some unexplained reason.
I am not rooting for Musk to fail. I am rooting for a day when we don't have outright lies (election denial without proof, anti-vaccination misinformation with dubious only sources), antisemitic writing, and anti-trans/gender (aka 'anti-woke') rhetoric. Your average liberal doesn't want terrible stuff banned because they fear that they themselves might be influenced or hurt - but because of proven historical concern that another conservatives - such as the young male who is or becomes the proud owner of an AR-15 will take 'matters' into his own hands at an LGBTQ night club or hit the Speaker of the House's husband with a hammer.
As for the expected fiscal demise of Twitter, all one has to be is a conservative economist evaluating a business. Musk bought something for $44B that other business people say is worth less than $7-10B and took out hefty loans to do much of it. When it was in 'better days' - like last year - it was only generating $1B a year, while supported by shareholders (spreading the pain so to speak). Heck, you and I probably owned a few shares in our retirement portfolios.
Now it's one guy trying to make the mortgage every month as advertisers leave due to the very reason Musk purchased Twitter - to allow it to platform all thoughts, presumably no matter how repulsive, all in the name of free speech. Never mind the fact that free speech only applies to government granted rights and not rights conferred by a lone businessman running a private business. And his financial situation is happening at a time when our country has yet to slip into a recession that is all but considered necessary in order to bring the nation's housing and associated inflation into balance.
I enjoy Twitter. We were enjoying Twitter before Musk. I hope it becomes successful under him, but it's hard not to consider the numbers: the likely monthly cash burn rate, how much cash must have to be drawn from outside Twitter just to pay the interest, the dislike expressed by power users if there's any mention of paying even the smallest of monthly fees for any reason, and fleeing advertisers exercising their free right of commerce.
I made my decision to leave Twitter today! The right wing conspiracies, Trump, etc, are going full speed again! I do not want to hear their attacks and conspiracies again! I never did join Truth Social for these very reasons. So, my feeling is when I compare the number of people on Twitter versus Truth Social and if Musk continues to cater to the crazies & running off advertisers & other people that feel the way I do, I think Twitter will go down the drain! Just my thinking! Have fun people on Twitter!
By the way, I suspect some part of the recent kerfuffles about banning some journalists and banning mastodon links may be related to cuts to twitter's censorship, err "moderation", staff. In order to work well, much of this stuff requires a fair bit of constant tuning, in real-time. Sure, you can keep running with a version you don't update. Likely, nothing bad will happen immediately. But it's like running antivirus software which isn't updated. Eventually, it's not going to catch new stuff you need it to catch, and that can be a big problem. Now, Musk may not think it's a big problem, that it's just journos complaining, and he doesn't care about them. But it's again tempting fate in terms of risking disaster.
New York Times today:
"Twitter Glitches Pile Up as Key Features Fail
Many users said they could not post tweets or message one another on Wednesday as the #TwitterDown hashtag began trending."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/technology/twitter-glitches-features.html
In other words, when cutting technical staff, i.e. poking the bear: "Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you".